UpTrajectory Review

Lance Lambert's ResiClub data piece tracks the slow-motion normalization of the U.S. housing market: active listings hit 1,161,615 in September 2026, up 5.6% year-over-year and marking three consecutive months of accelerating inventory growth. The numbers tell a striking recovery story — inventory has nearly doubled from the pandemic-era trough of 578,070 homes in September 2021 — yet remains 5.2% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Lambert frames this as a soft market where buyers are gaining leverage, though he notes the acceleration is modest compared to the 16.9% growth rate seen twelve months prior, and warns that rising mortgage rates (back at two-year highs) could slow the momentum just as the market enters its seasonally slow period.

For New Jersey small business owners, this inventory shift is less about real estate and more about the liquidity and confidence of your customer base. Homeowners who bought or refinanced at pandemic-era rates are no longer sitting on untouchable 3% mortgages; as inventory loosens and price growth stalls, the 'lock-in effect' that kept potential movers frozen is thawing. That matters if you're a contractor, home services provider, landscaper, or moving company waiting for households to finally pull the trigger on relocation. It also matters for Main Street retail: when housing turns over, new residents arrive with pent-up demand for local services, furniture, and renovation work.

What's genuinely new here is the duration — three straight months of accelerating growth suggests this isn't statistical noise but a sustained trend, even if the pace remains glacial. We're skeptical of calling this a buyer's market, however. A 5.6% increase in listings sounds dramatic until you remember that 2021-2023 inventory was artificially suppressed to historic lows. We're still below 2019 levels, and with mortgage rates at two-year highs, the 'softening' Lambert describes may simply be affordability-driven stagnation rather than a healthy correction. The risk is a market frozen not by lack of supply, but by lack of demand at current prices.

The second-order effects cut unevenly. Existing homeowners face a narrowing window to sell at peak prices before rate-lock fully dissolves, while first-time buyers gain modest negotiating power but face punishing monthly payments. For New Jersey specifically, where property taxes and insurance costs already strain affordability, rising rates compound the pressure. Businesses should watch for a bifurcated market: high-end properties sitting longer (requiring price cuts) while entry-level inventory remains scarce. This affects hiring too — construction and real estate-adjacent sectors may see demand shift from new builds to renovation as homeowners decide to improve rather than move.

Watch whether inventory growth can maintain momentum above 6% through the winter slow season; if it stalls while rates stay elevated, we're looking at stagflation in housing — high prices, high rates, and stagnant transaction volume. Practical steps: if your business depends on housing turnover, diversify revenue toward renovation and repair services now, as 'improve in place' becomes the default for rate-locked owners. If you're planning expansion or equipment purchases, monitor local inventory data monthly; a sustained supply increase in your specific New Jersey county could signal approaching price corrections that affect commercial real estate valuations and your own borrowing costs.

“Nonetheless, the continued growth in nationally aggregated inventory suggests a nationally aggregated housing market that's soft, with buyers in many markets gaining some additional leverage over the past year.” — Fast Company

Takeaway: Track local New Jersey inventory monthly; if listings keep rising while rates stay high, pivot your business toward renovation and repair services as homeowners choose to improve rather than move.