UpTrajectory Review

Private-label groceries have hit $330 billion in U.S. sales and now account for roughly a quarter of all unit volume, according to Circana data cited in this piece — but the more consequential number is attitudinal. FMI research shows 94% of shoppers who tried store brands during the inflation surge say they will keep buying them even if grocery prices fall. That is the story here: what began as a trade-down has hardened into a preference. The article also notes that retailers including Walmart, Kroger, Costco, and Aldi are pouring investment into premium, wellness-oriented, and indulgent private-label lines, signaling they believe the shift is structural rather than cyclical.

For independent grocers and specialty food retailers, this is not a distant trend to observe — it is a direct competitive threat. Aldi's aggressive U.S. expansion and Kroger's private-label push mean the value end of the market is getting sharper and more crowded at the same time. If you operate a single store or small regional chain, your national-brand shelf mix may now be working against you: shoppers have already accepted the quality of store brands, so carrying the same national products as everyone else at higher prices gives them less reason to walk through your door. The margin math matters too, because private-label lines typically carry better margins for the retailer that controls them.

The genuinely new development is the breadth of the category expansion. Private label is no longer confined to commodity staples — Circana data shows growth spreading into premium, sustainable, and wellness-focused products, segments where national brands once held near-automatic loyalty. We are somewhat skeptical of the 94% retention figure as a predictor of actual behavior; consumers routinely overstate their willingness to change habits in surveys, and a genuine deflationary period in food prices could soften the trend. But the direction is consistent with what we have seen in European markets, where private-label share climbed steadily over decades and never fully retreated.

The second-order effects reach well beyond grocery shelves. National CPG brands facing a structural loss of shelf share will likely respond with heavier promotional spending, which could compress margins for retailers who depend on slotting fees and co-op advertising. Suppliers to private-label manufacturers may see steadier volume but less pricing power. On the consumer side, the shift is broadly positive — store brands have historically pushed national brands to justify their premiums — though a market where two or three retailers control most private-label volume could eventually reduce choice rather than expand it.

Watch two things in the coming quarters: whether private-label unit share continues climbing if the rate of food inflation keeps cooling, and whether any national brands attempt a direct-to-consumer or premium-positioning counterattack. For operators, the actionable move is to audit your own private-label strategy now. If you do not have one, the barrier to entry through co-packers and regional distributors has never been lower. If you do, the opportunity is in the premium and wellness tiers, where differentiation — not just price — is driving the next wave of growth.

“94% said they would continue buying store brands even if grocery prices declined.” — TheStreet

Takeaway: Audit your private-label mix now: shoppers have already accepted store-brand quality, so the opportunity is premium differentiation, not just lower prices.